| Coalition | Greens | Independent | Labor | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coalition | 53.8 | 3.4 | 2.4 | 40.1 | 0.3 |
| Greens | 27.9 | 19.4 | 4.0 | 48.5 | 0.1 |
| Independent | 32.8 | 7.3 | 15.1 | 44.9 | 0.0 |
| Labor | 38.1 | 7.0 | 2.3 | 52.4 | 0.2 |
| Other | 51.5 | 5.0 | 2.6 | 39.9 | 1.0 |
Projecting survey based estimates of 2022 onto small areas
1 Predicting vote with Census data on AES
How well can we predict vote in the AES data with predictors that are available on the CURF? This includes the SA4-level Census data predictors.
Brier score: 0.2467291
Confusion matrix: for each actual outcome (row), distribution of predictions assigned with max prob:
1.1 Performance with modal missing data imputation
Brier score: 0.2454336
Confusion matrix: actual (rows) by predicted/max-prob (cols):
| Coalition | Greens | Independent | Labor | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coalition | 53.5 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 40.0 | 0.2 |
| Greens | 29.8 | 19.2 | 4.0 | 46.7 | 0.3 |
| Independent | 31.7 | 5.9 | 16.1 | 46.2 | 0.0 |
| Labor | 38.1 | 8.2 | 1.9 | 51.6 | 0.2 |
| Other | 54.3 | 5.2 | 3.4 | 35.3 | 1.7 |
2 Inference for populations
2.1 Vote marginal for the CURF data from imputed data
| 2022 House vote | |
|---|---|
| Coalition | 19.9 |
| Greens | 20.0 |
| Independent | 20.0 |
| Labor | 20.1 |
| Other | 20.0 |
2.2 Predict onto CURF from model fit to complete AES data
| 2022 House vote | MaxProb | SumProbs | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Coalition | 55.1 | 46.7 | 35.7 |
| Greens | 0.5 | 6.8 | 12.2 |
| Independent | 1.0 | 2.4 | 5.3 |
| Labor | 43.3 | 43.0 | 32.6 |
Variable importance:
rf variable importance
only 20 most important variables shown (out of 28)
Overall
RELP_collapsed 100.00
AGE_continuous 76.35
ANCP_collapse 67.60
INCP_continuous 52.93
MSTP 44.60
UNI 37.24
Median_tot_hhd_inc_weekly_G02 36.17
Median_tot_fam_inc_weekly_G02 35.96
PC3 34.65
Median_mortgage_repay_monthly_G02 34.11
PC5 33.70
PC1 33.48
PC4 33.36
Median_tot_prsnl_inc_weekly_G02 33.34
PC6 32.91
PC9 32.72
Median_rent_weekly_G02 32.64
PC2 32.18
PC7 31.93
PC10 31.89
3 Predictions for geographies
Combine predictions with other covariates on curf_complete
3.1 AREAENUM
Code
3.2 Electoral divisions
Code
3.3 Demographic imbalance in CED extracts from CURF
Code
3.4 Rake CED extracts on demographics
Variation in weights:
| Division | s | min | max |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bendigo | 2.5780416 | 0.0000086 | 30.859540 |
| Sydney | 1.7987436 | 0.0009711 | 12.199306 |
| Casey | 1.7944043 | 0.0002709 | 12.687224 |
| New England | 1.6482850 | 0.0000509 | 17.086233 |
| Flinders | 1.6333033 | 0.0000658 | 19.850798 |
| Mallee | 1.5726479 | 0.0130783 | 14.372747 |
| Moreton | 1.5478647 | 0.0151816 | 11.127717 |
| Boothby | 1.4428878 | 0.0053361 | 14.322665 |
| Bennelong | 1.4376156 | 0.0006818 | 13.620257 |
| Wannon | 1.4066912 | 0.0143034 | 13.658697 |
| Makin | 1.4027926 | 0.0000106 | 14.575613 |
| Oxley | 1.3967175 | 0.0133082 | 15.856979 |
| Durack | 1.3734926 | 0.0123059 | 10.704866 |
| Parkes | 1.3263571 | 0.0074893 | 15.274519 |
| Barker | 1.3234352 | 0.0000471 | 9.226240 |
| Menzies | 1.3208845 | 0.0095473 | 9.279756 |
| Fowler | 1.2885169 | 0.0035197 | 13.186444 |
| Barton | 1.2850943 | 0.0040512 | 9.874167 |
| Dickson | 1.2760560 | 0.0067525 | 12.076173 |
| Grey | 1.2547192 | 0.0033467 | 14.347527 |
| Macquarie | 1.2526396 | 0.0103729 | 12.017586 |
| Wentworth | 1.2509479 | 0.0128664 | 9.629454 |
| Blair | 1.2316744 | 0.0066233 | 8.565736 |
| Werriwa | 1.2301238 | 0.0270912 | 13.247889 |
| Nicholls | 1.1973524 | 0.0167508 | 8.376280 |
| McEwen | 1.1939602 | 0.0166799 | 11.065251 |
| Indi | 1.1877036 | 0.0031423 | 8.382811 |
| Brisbane | 1.1436707 | 0.0156068 | 6.731995 |
| Pearce | 1.1387601 | 0.0001674 | 6.936223 |
| Forde | 1.1372234 | 0.0496546 | 9.618007 |
| Hume | 1.1190159 | 0.0000241 | 7.933744 |
| Calare | 1.0950057 | 0.0100608 | 8.436689 |
| Griffith | 1.0902510 | 0.0032716 | 7.620977 |
| Greenway | 1.0811338 | 0.0104492 | 8.453713 |
| Whitlam | 1.0467476 | 0.0582190 | 8.933270 |
| Cook | 1.0419148 | 0.0364373 | 13.953604 |
| Isaacs | 1.0404038 | 0.0515471 | 8.528984 |
| Watson | 1.0365405 | 0.0069620 | 7.264573 |
| Bonner | 1.0219053 | 0.0007176 | 7.441562 |
| Deakin | 1.0186199 | 0.0101797 | 8.220599 |
| Gorton | 0.9975589 | 0.0150294 | 7.033615 |
| McMahon | 0.9966654 | 0.0090440 | 12.839455 |
| Paterson | 0.9903204 | 0.0169473 | 7.453546 |
| North Sydney | 0.9830184 | 0.0185560 | 9.034169 |
| Mitchell | 0.9817589 | 0.0276072 | 14.058285 |
| Groom | 0.9693507 | 0.0232321 | 7.672426 |
| Riverina | 0.9450200 | 0.0000108 | 5.985934 |
| Hawke | 0.9406561 | 0.0061943 | 7.606924 |
| Maranoa | 0.9358403 | 0.0320753 | 6.922041 |
| Curtin | 0.9332948 | 0.0665137 | 13.835585 |
| Farrer | 0.9262207 | 0.0413802 | 11.565611 |
| Kennedy | 0.9247250 | 0.0304334 | 6.378256 |
| Hughes | 0.9232049 | 0.0578815 | 10.750154 |
| Rankin | 0.9084038 | 0.0562276 | 8.763248 |
| Adelaide | 0.8942120 | 0.0403152 | 8.575549 |
| Cooper | 0.8930565 | 0.0147946 | 7.515505 |
| Hasluck | 0.8903487 | 0.0243475 | 4.935279 |
| Sturt | 0.8860890 | 0.0516610 | 12.485082 |
| Flynn | 0.8845663 | 0.0626193 | 11.311120 |
| Macnamara | 0.8596823 | 0.0932197 | 12.305099 |
| Perth | 0.8448319 | 0.0685515 | 6.721007 |
| Gellibrand | 0.8408229 | 0.1001703 | 11.718316 |
| Berowra | 0.8393769 | 0.0115527 | 8.051217 |
| Tangney | 0.8261073 | 0.0653509 | 11.432890 |
| Macarthur | 0.8230161 | 0.0593629 | 8.172548 |
| Reid | 0.8225637 | 0.0335505 | 7.261453 |
| Petrie | 0.7908424 | 0.0546750 | 9.178553 |
| Wright | 0.7848379 | 0.0463837 | 7.367668 |
| Hotham | 0.7822530 | 0.0343599 | 7.895685 |
| Jagajaga | 0.7810443 | 0.0626807 | 8.612915 |
| Shortland | 0.7780678 | 0.0612036 | 6.363784 |
| Cowan | 0.7519233 | 0.0573316 | 7.946864 |
| Gilmore | 0.7496870 | 0.0460703 | 5.371107 |
| Chisholm | 0.7414970 | 0.0800713 | 9.205027 |
| Capricornia | 0.7389866 | 0.0773710 | 7.933174 |
| La Trobe | 0.7386513 | 0.0298348 | 5.699612 |
| Fraser | 0.7340315 | 0.0648693 | 7.765142 |
| Lingiari | 0.7265968 | 0.1286400 | 6.324772 |
| Canning | 0.7243790 | 0.0300809 | 8.691773 |
| Higgins | 0.7210573 | 0.0618029 | 8.158822 |
| Canberra | 0.7094029 | 0.1062587 | 7.947039 |
| Robertson | 0.7019808 | 0.0949866 | 7.162520 |
| Scullin | 0.7005307 | 0.1204179 | 6.758612 |
| Lyne | 0.7004547 | 0.0399576 | 5.005509 |
| Calwell | 0.6991125 | 0.1412705 | 5.234313 |
| Wide Bay | 0.6971233 | 0.0398779 | 6.112446 |
| Clark | 0.6962159 | 0.1053896 | 6.588164 |
| Blaxland | 0.6912721 | 0.0588989 | 4.951604 |
| Eden-Monaro | 0.6874472 | 0.1709286 | 6.638256 |
| Richmond | 0.6785678 | 0.0490977 | 7.124612 |
| Kingsford Smith | 0.6762163 | 0.1219288 | 5.377459 |
| Mayo | 0.6670176 | 0.0130771 | 5.563939 |
| Bradfield | 0.6619736 | 0.1106240 | 6.581924 |
| Newcastle | 0.6577251 | 0.1008045 | 6.896389 |
| Corangamite | 0.6542218 | 0.1132389 | 9.821724 |
| Grayndler | 0.6406635 | 0.0515023 | 4.828771 |
| Solomon | 0.6365387 | 0.0933097 | 4.986568 |
| Lalor | 0.6342810 | 0.1037005 | 5.545238 |
| Cunningham | 0.6319962 | 0.1236790 | 6.662259 |
| Leichhardt | 0.6312873 | 0.1206082 | 5.560562 |
| Hinkler | 0.6215269 | 0.0624515 | 5.085246 |
| Moore | 0.6209194 | 0.1144009 | 6.467165 |
| Banks | 0.6206930 | 0.1942334 | 5.672632 |
| Chifley | 0.6197328 | 0.0874513 | 4.782245 |
| Holt | 0.6164560 | 0.0443667 | 5.601250 |
| Corio | 0.6055126 | 0.1588281 | 6.255713 |
| Franklin | 0.5878195 | 0.1062300 | 6.417149 |
| Melbourne | 0.5733922 | 0.1660150 | 4.116145 |
| Kooyong | 0.5669183 | 0.1099543 | 5.828383 |
| Moncrieff | 0.5651720 | 0.1252925 | 5.681130 |
| Swan | 0.5607994 | 0.1452317 | 6.905182 |
| Lindsay | 0.5586542 | 0.1406972 | 4.154971 |
| Lilley | 0.5583978 | 0.1032221 | 5.358251 |
| Parramatta | 0.5563628 | 0.1227808 | 5.001099 |
| Aston | 0.5513989 | 0.1706816 | 5.040813 |
| Monash | 0.5465856 | 0.0877061 | 5.653150 |
| Herbert | 0.5452790 | 0.0868871 | 4.582953 |
| Maribyrnong | 0.5449552 | 0.1232340 | 5.488512 |
| Forrest | 0.5447834 | 0.0864451 | 6.175120 |
| Dobell | 0.5437386 | 0.1396497 | 4.395371 |
| Dunkley | 0.5435595 | 0.1713133 | 4.767757 |
| Warringah | 0.5434095 | 0.0987807 | 4.238104 |
| Goldstein | 0.5418253 | 0.1301611 | 5.525831 |
| McPherson | 0.5413583 | 0.1083691 | 5.434242 |
| Longman | 0.5353452 | 0.0768650 | 3.733408 |
| Hunter | 0.5295370 | 0.1100505 | 4.743364 |
| Fremantle | 0.5236029 | 0.1160798 | 4.401008 |
| Bruce | 0.5206726 | 0.1335883 | 5.451724 |
| Ballarat | 0.5202467 | 0.1180586 | 6.364325 |
| O'Connor | 0.5189334 | 0.0547496 | 4.075871 |
| Cowper | 0.5187695 | 0.0960574 | 4.770949 |
| Dawson | 0.5161077 | 0.0841633 | 6.524573 |
| Gippsland | 0.5136464 | 0.0846250 | 4.894813 |
| Bowman | 0.5133425 | 0.1172712 | 4.000088 |
| Fadden | 0.5016992 | 0.1358906 | 4.412945 |
| Fairfax | 0.5007181 | 0.0963938 | 3.927981 |
| Fisher | 0.4953689 | 0.1093310 | 3.648678 |
| Braddon | 0.4867593 | 0.0457050 | 5.209183 |
| Wills | 0.4777914 | 0.1836633 | 4.666492 |
| Spence | 0.4726178 | 0.1110867 | 3.321669 |
| Brand | 0.4682428 | 0.1037821 | 4.441956 |
| Page | 0.4636118 | 0.0689725 | 3.884404 |
| Ryan | 0.4635004 | 0.1900109 | 4.107098 |
| Mackellar | 0.4334901 | 0.0751803 | 2.521836 |
| Kingston | 0.4312959 | 0.1926938 | 3.132224 |
| Burt | 0.4157660 | 0.1990193 | 3.329439 |
| Bass | 0.4157223 | 0.2095118 | 3.090007 |
| Bean | 0.4075736 | 0.1933086 | 3.323672 |
| Fenner | 0.4057896 | 0.1337472 | 2.968078 |
| Lyons | 0.4017169 | 0.0543050 | 3.083122 |
| Hindmarsh | 0.3964710 | 0.1443560 | 3.695762 |
Weighted estimates of vote:
Warning in left_join(yhat %>% select(.id, outcome, p), ced_raked %>% unnest(d), : Detected an unexpected many-to-many relationship between `x` and `y`.
ℹ Row 1 of `x` matches multiple rows in `y`.
ℹ Row 223191 of `y` matches multiple rows in `x`.
ℹ If a many-to-many relationship is expected, set `relationship =
"many-to-many"` to silence this warning.